The market has been getting bumpier in recent weeks. Investors have grown more worried as the intermediate-term outlook for stocks has become cloudier.
Geopolitical tensions are mounting in the Middle East. This has the possibility of causing a surge in oil and other commodity prices. Domestically, inflation readings continue to come in hotter than expected. This has caused economists to reconsider whether the Federal Reserve can go ahead with planned rate cuts later in 2024.
Traders had been betting on a so-called economic soft landing. But that scenario is coming under increasing scrutiny, and investors are taking some chips off the table. Furthermore, it’s currently earnings season. It remains to be seen how the numbers will work out, but if things go poorly, we could see the market accelerate to the downside.
Fortunately, there are excellent companies which investors can buy to prepare for such a market decline. In particular, consumer stocks often outperform during bear markets. People still engage in basic household activities regardless of the economic climate. As a result, consumer stocks tend to be superior holdings during recessions. These are three must buy consumer stocks for 2024.
Dollar General (DG)
Dollar General (NYSE:DG) is a retailer that benefits from the so-called trade down dynamic as customers seek to save money. The retailer focuses on selling low-priced everyday items and delivering maximum value for its shoppers.
DG stock sold sharply over the past 18 months as the company was hit by shoplifting, disgruntled employees, negative media reports, and a challenging supply chain.
However, an economic downturn should help restore Dollar General to its prior fortunes, as Dollar General stores tend to attract plenty of clientele during hard times. Up until 2022, it’s worth noting, DG stock had been a tremendous long-term performer, and I believe the company can return to form despite its recent challenges.
In addition, one of the company’s major competitors, 99 Cents Only Stores, recently went bust and will be liquidating. This will decrease competition within the discount store space and create a greater opportunity and more market share for Dollar General heading into the next recession.
McCormick (MKC)
McCormick (NYSE:MKC) is far and away the largest spices and seasonings company in the United States.
The company is traditionally known for its McCormick-branded spice bottles, selling goods like black pepper, oregano, cinnamon and vanilla extract.
In recent years, McCormick has branched out. It has made a big push into sauces and condiments with the acquisition of brands like French’s and Frank’s Red Hot. McCormick then doubled down on the fast-growing hot sauce market with its Cholula acquisition. Less well-known, McCormick is also a large supplier of store brand spices meaning that McCormick earns money on a large chunk of U.S. spices sales regardless of the particular product labeling.
McCormick is a great economic recession pick because spices are a low-cost item that people eat almost every day. People will keep consuming them, regardless of the macroeconomic climate. In fact, in an event where people cook more at home to save money, spice usage could conceivably go up and provide a countercyclical growth opportunity for McCormick during a recession.
In addition, younger shoppers have shown interest in unique recipes, flavors and cuisines. So, there should be a longer-term growth tailwind for the company regardless of economic conditions.
Stocks such as McCormick tend to outperform during recessions because investors gravitate to companies with steady revenues and profitability. McCormick should fit that description perfectly during the next recession.
Diageo (DEO)
Diageo (NYSE:DEO) is one of the world’s largest spirits companies. It has the number one or number two brand across many spirits categories. Its wide-ranging portfolio includes rum, vodka, tequila, whiskey, and Guinness beer among other items.
The case for Diageo is similar to McCormick. People’s alcohol consumption tends to be fairly steady regardless of economic conditions. Historically, the alcohol industry has shown minimal correlation to economic activity; people tend to drink whether they are partying or commiserating.
However, the industry did go through a slump due to pandemic, as COVID-19 caused many restaurants, bars, and other on-premise locations to shut down. This was particularly prevalent in Europe, where Diageo is headquartered. The Latin American market also slowed down in 2023, further hitting results.
Thus, profitability going forward should improve as the spirits industry continues its recovery from the recent industry upheaval; Diageo is also seeing improvements in supply chain and labor conditions as things normalize.
Thus, DEO stock could represent a rare example of a company that should see its profitability increase going forward, even as the economy quite possibly falls into recession.
Adding to that, Diageo shares are near their lowest valuation of the past decade, making this a great time to stock up on this recession-proof consumer stock. Morningstar agrees that DEO shares are undervalued, with analyst Jelena Sokolova stating that the company’s wide competitive moat hasn’t been impacted despite the recent cyclical downturn in the industry.
On the date of publication, Ian Bezek held a long position in DG, DEO, and MKC stock. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.